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Home-Buying & Climate Change: The Riskiest and Safest Places in 2022

Home-Buying & Climate Change: The Riskiest and Safest Places in 2022

🌊 What risks does climate change pose to U.S. real estate? 🌊
Climate change is linked to more costly natural disasters, concentrated in risky areas. Nevertheless, many of the most in-demand metro areas for buyers are in the states most threatened by disasters.
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Property Lost to Disasters | High Risk in High-Demand Areas | Wildfires | Hurricanes | Coastal Flooding | River Flooding | Winter Storms | Areas With Lower Disaster Risk | Additional Climate Costs | Methodology | FAQ

Fueled by climate change, extreme natural disasters are increasingly wreaking havoc on American people and property. Fires are burning larger. Hurricanes are hitting harder. Droughts are lasting longer.

In 2021 alone, 41 U.S. states had at least one non-COVID disaster declared by federal emergency officials.

Homeowners fortunate enough not to experience disaster losses still face higher costs associated with climate change, including pricier homeowners insurance and expensive energy costs.

As home buyers spend more to keep up with climate costs in the short term, the long-term impacts threaten to upend the market. By 2100, researchers estimate up to 13 million U.S. residents could see their homes left uninhabitable due to rising sea levels, exacerbating housing scarcity.

Meanwhile, Americans continue to live in — and move to — the areas most at risk of disasters. Coastal counties, for example, make up 10% of the nation’s land but hold 40% of the population. Our analysis shows many of the states most threatened by disasters are home to some of the most in-demand metro areas for home buyers. 

Climate change has already begun to magnify the nation’s affordable housing crisis. To understand more about its impact, we analyzed weather and real estate data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Federal Emergency Management
Agency, Zillow, and other sources.

See our full findings below on how climate change will continue to affect home-buying and real estate at large.

🌪️ Climate Change vs. Real Estate Statistics

  • Disasters causing over $1 billion in damage have grown increasingly common in the last four decades, costing the U.S. over $2 trillion since 1980. Jump to section 👇
  • The states climate change has most financially impacted since 1980 are Texas, Louisiana, Florida, and California.
  • Out of 145 billion-dollar disasters in the U.S. since 2012, Texas has been impacted by 73 of them.
  • The U.S. counties with the highest hazard risk scores are Harris County (Houston) in Texas, Miami-Dade County in Florida, and Bronx County in New York.
  • Since 2012, California has had 146 FEMA-declared weather and environmental disasters, the most in the U.S. and 564% more than the average state, which has had 22 (includes all disasters, not just those costing over $1 billion). 👇
    • In that span, the average coastal state has experienced 27 FEMA weather disasters, while the average non-coastal state has experienced 18.
  • In 2021, federal emergency officials declared at least one non-COVID disaster in 41 U.S. states.
  • States with the highest overall Expected Annual Losses (EAL) from natural hazards are California, followed by Texas, Florida, and Louisiana. 👇
    • States with the lowest overall EAL scores are Rhode Island, Vermont, and Delaware, among other Northeastern states. 👇
  • California is the most at risk of wildfire damage, with the highest EAL score in that disaster category. 👇
  • New Jersey is the most at risk of coastal flooding damage, with the highest EAL score in that category. 👇
  • Texas is the most at risk of hurricanes, river flooding, and winter storm damage, with the highest EAL scores in those categories. 👇
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Billion-Dollar Disasters Are Growing More Common, Especially on the Gulf Coast

More frequent and intense natural disasters are the most glaring examples of climate chaos hurting homeowners. Since 1980, the number of billion-dollar weather and climate disasters occurring year-over-year has increased 567% (adjusted for inflation).

In all, natural disasters and events have cost the U.S. over $2 trillion since 1980.

Home prices have followed a similar pattern. Though the two trends don’t directly influence one another, the combination forecasts a bleak future in which fewer Americans can afford homes while also having fewer hospitable areas to live in, driving
up demand and prices in regions less impacted by extreme weather.

Costly disasters have ramped up in recent years. Adjusted for inflation, the U.S. averaged 4.7 billion-dollar disasters annually from 1980 to 2007. Since 2008, it’s 13.6 annually. In 2020 and 2021, that number increased to 21 per year.

More than $1 trillion of that sum is the result of tropical cyclones such as hurricanes, which have the highest average cost of all disasters at $20 billion per storm.

Much of the economic damage has fallen on the Gulf Coast. Since 1980, disasters have caused over $250 billion in damages in Texas, Louisiana, and Florida each. Since 2012, Texas has been impacted by 73 separate billion-dollar disasters — just over half of the 145 nationwide. 

As for individual counties, NOAA reports those with the highest general hazard risk from disasters are:

  • Harris County (Houston), Texas: Hazard score of 100 out of 100
  • Miami-Dade County, Florida: Hazard score of 71.5
  • Bronx County, New York: Hazard score of 67.2

Areas With the Most Disasters — and Highest Expected Losses

Areas with a high frequency of disasters remain some of the most in-demand for home buyers. Data from FEMA illustrates how.

Since 2012, metro areas in the three states with the most FEMA-declared disasters (California, Oregon, and Washington) have seen home prices outpace the U.S. median home price, rising an average of 167% compared to 113% across the U.S.

These three states account for 26% of environmental FEMA disasters in all states since 2012.

State Metro # of Declared Disasters in State Since 2012 Home Price Increase Since 2012
California Riverside 146 183%
California San Diego 146 141%
California Sacramento 146 188%
California Los Angeles 146 147%
California San Jose 146 190%
California San Francisco 146 184%
Washington Seattle 85 162%
Oregon Portland 58 140%
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Since 2012, California alone accounts for 146 FEMA-declared weather and environmental disasters — 564% higher than the average state (22 disasters). 

The average coastal state has witnessed 27 disasters in the last decade — 50% more than non-coastal states, which have an average of 18.

Quantifying Risks: Expected Annual Loss

To simplify the math behind assessing natural hazards, FEMA assigns each state a score from 0 to 100 representing Expected Annual Loss. The score quantifies losses and risk for buildings, people, and agriculture.

The five states with the highest EAL scores are:

State Overall EAL Score
California 100
Texas 86
Florida 57.3
Louisiana 48.1
North Carolina 46.1
Show more

FEMA also generates EAL scores for each type of disaster. We’ll examine five of the most common below: wildfires, hurricanes, coastal flooding, river flooding, and winter storms.

The table below shows home price increases for the 50 largest U.S. metros, along with their state’s risk scores.

State Metro Home Price Increase Since 2012

Overall EAL Score

Wildfire EAL Score Coastal Flooding EAL Score Winter Weather EAL Score Hurricane EAL Score River Flooding EAL Score
Alabama Birmingham

65%

34.6

18.4

13.5

38.6

40.5

30.9

Arizona Phoenix

232%

25.7

52.8

0

25.8

3.8

23.9

California Los Angeles

147%

100

100

9.9

26.2

0

46.9

California Riverside

183%

100

100

9.9

26.2

0

46.9

California Sacramento

188%

100

100

9.9

26.2

0

46.9

California San Diego

141%

100

100

9.9

26.2

0

46.9

California San Francisco

184%

100

100

9.9

26.2

0

46.9

California San Jose

190%

100

100

9.9

26.2

0

46.9

Colorado Denver

150%

32.7

40

0

38.1

0

31.7

Connecticut Hartford

38%

8.6

4.5

17.3

23.4

11.4

7.8

D.C. Washington D.C.

53%

0.6

0

3.2

23.3

11.4

0.1

Florida Jacksonville

133%

57.3

64

68.5

21.5

78.5

47.1

Florida Miami

172%

57.3

64

68.5

21.5

78.5

47.1

Florida Orlando

193%

57.3

64

68.5

21.5

78.5

47.1

Florida Tampa

202%

57.3

64

68.5

21.5

78.5

47.1

Georgia Atlanta

142%

36.9

34.4

22.9

69.1

30.4

25.7

Illinois Chicago

79%

42.5

3.6

0

66.5

15.4

36.1

Indiana Indianapolis

108%

31.8

2.7

0

59.3

13.1

30.9

Kentucky Louisville

67%

32.7

26.6

0

54.4

10

31.2

Louisiana New Orleans

68%

48.1

20.1

50.8

39.9

68.8

59.8

Maryland Baltimore

42%

21.7

15.4

41.4

52.5

19.7

17.7

Massachusetts Boston

89%

15.4

11.1

15.3

21.3

11.5

23

Michigan Detroit

140%

28.4

13.4

0

65.1

13.5

31.7

Minnesota Minneapolis

113%

33.4

29.2

0

66.6

1

23.3

Missouri Kansas City

106%

42.9

16.6

0

89.2

11.6

36.8

Missouri St. Louis

64%

42.9

16.6

0

89.2

11.6

36.8

Nevada Las Vegas

230%

27.6

39

0

20.6

0

24.9

New York Buffalo

76%

32.7

8.9

38.8

54.8

15

42.8

New York New York

57%

32.7

8.9

38.8

54.8

15

42.8

North Carolina Charlotte

128%

46.1

27.2

31.5

75.3

62.7

36.9

North Carolina Raleigh

110%

46.1

27.2

31.5

75.3

62.7

36.9

Ohio Cincinnati

77%

31.4

8.7

0

81

12.6

36.4

Ohio Cleveland

62%

31.4

8.7

0

81

12.6

36.4

Ohio Columbus

97%

31.4

8.7

0

81

12.6

36.4

Oklahoma Oklahoma City

77%

37.1

41.3

0

69.3

4.4

24.8

Oregon Portland

140%

35.9

29.4

51

37.8

0

21.2

Pennsylvania Philadelphia

51%

30.2

6.4

28.6

67.2

14.3

41

Pennsylvania Pittsburgh

64%

30.2

6.4

28.6

67.2

14.3

41

Rhode Island Providence

93%

0.2

3.9

11.1

14.2

3.3

7.2

Tennessee Memphis

93%

41

11.8

0

48.3

11.3

47.6

Tennessee Nashville

160%

41

11.8

0

48.3

11.3

47.6

Texas Austin

168%

86

52.8

34.7

100

100

100

Texas Dallas

149%

86

52.8

34.7

100

100

100

Texas Houston

109%

86

52.8

34.7

100

100

100

Texas San Antonio

102%

86

52.8

34.7

100

100

100

Utah Salt Lake City

192%

25.4

39.6

4.4

57.5

0

23.5

Virginia Richmond

78%

26.5

20.6

37

46.3

26.8

27.9

Virginia Virginia Beach

46%

26.5

20.6

37

46.3

26.8

27.9

Washington Seattle

162%

45.9

29.3

83.1

27.3

0

8.8

Wisconsin Milwaukee

49%

24

11.5

0

54.3

9.9

24.4

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The Worst Places for Wildfires

Influenced by a hotter, drier climate, wildfires have grown harder to contain, burning larger swaths of land and putting more homes at risk.

In 2021, wildfires impacted 5x as much land as they did in 1983 (1.3 million acres vs. 7.1 million). 

The following states have the highest expected losses due to wildfires:

State Wildfire EAL Score
California 100
Florida 64
Texas 52.8
Arizona 52.8
Oklahoma 41.3
Show more

In 2021, 31% of all U.S. land impacted by fires was in California. And many of the state’s worst fires have taken place in the last few years.

The eight largest fires in California history all started in 2017 or later, with five of the six largest taking place in 2020 and 2021 —
destroying thousands of homes in the process.

The three California counties with the highest number of properties at risk of wildfire in 2022 are Riverside, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino counties, according to a report by the First Street Foundation.

Yet home prices continue to soar in surrounding metro areas. Since 2012, home prices in the Riverside metro area have increased 183%, with homes in the Los Angeles metro up 147% — well above the national average increase of 113%.

Metro-Area Home Prices vs. Wildfire Risk

Of the nation’s 50 most-populated metropolitan areas, 15 are in states with notable risk of wildfire damage (EAL score over 50).

The median home prices in those metros have increased by 166% since 2012 — compared to 113% nationwide. States significantly impacted by wildfires saw larger increases in metro-area home prices than states impacted by the four other types of natural disasters we reviewed. 

State Metro Home Price Increase Since 2012
California San Jose 190%
California Sacramento 188%
California San Francisco 184%
California Riverside 183%
California Los Angeles 147%
California San Diego 141%
Florida Tampa 202%
Florida Orlando 193%
Florida Miami 172%
Florida Jacksonville 133%
Arizona Phoenix 232%
Texas Austin 168%
Texas Dallas 149%
Texas Houston 109%
Texas San Antonio 102%
Show more

The Worst Places for Hurricanes

Tropical cyclones, which include hurricanes, are by far the most costly natural disasters in the U.S., inflicting more than $1 trillion in damages since 1980.

Texas, Florida, and Louisiana are the states most at risk of hurricane damages.

State Hurricane EAL Score
Texas 100
Florida 78.5
Louisiana 68.8
North Carolina 62.7
Mississippi 54.8
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Metro-Area Home Prices vs. Hurricane Risk

Of the country’s 50 most-populated metros, 11 are located in states with notable hurricane risk (EAL score over 50).

Nearly all of those metros (10 of 11) have seen home prices double since 2012. The median home price in those 11 areas has risen 139% in the last decade — compared to 113% nationally.

State Metro Home Price Increase Since 2012
Texas Austin 168%
Texas Dallas 149%
Texas Houston 109%
Texas San Antonio 102%
Florida Tampa 202%
Florida Orlando 193%
Florida Miami 172%
Florida Jacksonville 133%
Louisiana New Orleans 68%
North Carolina Charlotte 128%
North Carolina Raleigh 110%
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The Worst Places for Coastal Flooding

The states most in danger of coastal flooding are New Jersey, Washington, and Florida.

Ocean and Atlantic (Atlantic City) counties in New Jersey, Grays Harbor County in Washington, and Miami-Dade County in Florida are particularly at risk, according to FEMA mapping.

State Coastal Flooding EAL Score
New Jersey 100
Washington 83.1
Florida 68.5
Oregon 51
Louisiana 50.8
Show more

Metro-Area Home Prices vs. Coastal Flooding Risk

Of the country’s 50 most-populated metros, seven are located in states with notable coastal flooding risk (EAL score over 50).

The median home price in those areas has risen 153% in the last decade — compared to 113% nationally.

State Metro Home Price Increase Since 2012
Washington Seattle 162%
Florida Tampa 202%
Florida Orlando 193%
Florida Miami 172%
Florida Jacksonville 133%
Oregon Portland 140%
Louisiana New Orleans 68%
Show more

The Worst Places for River Flooding

Texas, Louisiana, and Tennessee are the most at risk of damage from river flooding.

All three were impacted by a 2019 flooding event along the Mississippi River, causing nearly $7 billion in damage.

State River Flooding EAL Score
Texas 100
Louisiana 59.8
Tennessee 47.6
Florida 47.1
California 46.9
Show more

Metro-Area Home Prices vs. River Flooding Risk

Of the country’s 50 most-populated metros, five are located in states with notable river flooding risk (EAL score over 50).

The median home price in those five areas has risen 99% in the last decade — compared to 113% nationally.

State Metro Home Price Increase Since 2012
Texas Austin 168%
Texas Dallas 149%
Texas Houston 109%
Texas San Antonio 102%
Louisiana New Orleans 68%
Show more

The Worst Places for Winter Storms

In the last 10 years, winter storms have caused nearly $35 billion in damage in the U.S. — a dramatic increase from the $5 billion in damage they caused in the previous 10-year span.

No state has worse winter storm risk than Texas — a reality that played out during a severe storm in February 2021. Looking ahead, Amarillo, El Paso, San Antonio, and Houston are among the areas most threatened, according to county-level data from NOAA.

State Winter Weather EAL Score
Texas 100
Missouri 89.2
Kansas 81.4
Ohio 81
North Carolina 75.3
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Metro-Area Home Prices vs. Winter Weather Risk

Half (25) of the 50 most-populated cities in the U.S. are in states with notable winter weather risk (EAL score over 50). In 12 of those metros, home prices have at least doubled since 2012.

Across the board, home prices in these 25 metros have increased 97% since 2012 — compared to the national average increase of 113%. States significantly impacted by winter weather saw smaller increases in metro-area home prices than states impacted
by the other four types of natural disasters we reviewed.

State Metro Home Price Increase Since 2012
Texas Austin 168%
Texas Dallas 149%
Texas Houston 109%
Texas San Antonio 102%
Missouri Kansas City 106%
Missouri St. Louis 64%
Ohio Columbus 97%
Ohio Cincinnati 77%
Ohio Cleveland 62%
North Carolina Charlotte 128%
North Carolina Raleigh 110%
Oklahoma Oklahoma City 77%
Georgia Atlanta 142%
Pennsylvania Pittsburgh 64%
Pennsylvania Philadelphia 51%
Minnesota Minneapolis 113%
Illinois Chicago 79%
Michigan Detroit 140%
Indiana Indianapolis 108%
Utah Salt Lake City 192%
New York Buffalo 76%
New York New York 57%
Kentucky Louisville 67%
Wisconsin Milwaukee 49%
Maryland Baltimore 42%
Show more

Where Are Homeowners Likely to Be Safest From Climate Change?

Not all states are projected to suffer the same damages from climate change as others. Some of the states with the lowest expected losses are concentrated in the Northeast, with Rhode Island, Vermont, and Delaware appearing the safest.

State Overall EAL Score
Rhode Island 0.2
Vermont 2.7
Delaware 4.6
New Hampshire 6
Maine 8
Show more

When it comes to safety from certain types of disasters, non-coastal states are, of course, the safest from hurricanes and coastal flooding. The following states are the safest from wildfires, river flooding, and winter storm risks:

  • Wildfires: Alaska, Hawaii, Indiana
  • River Flooding: Alaska, Idaho, Delaware
  • Winter Storms: Hawaii, Rhode Island, Nevada

Metro-Area Home Prices in Lower-Risk Areas

Metros that haven’t seen significant increases in median home prices since 2012 (less than 50% increase) happen to be some of the safest from the types of disasters we reviewed. None of these more affordable metros are in states with
EAL scores of 55 or higher.

The finding underscores how, for now, Americans continue to prioritize homes in areas with higher disaster risks, while areas that are relatively safe have attracted less attention from home buyers.

State Metro Home Price Increase Since 2012 Overall EAL Score Winter Weather EAL Score River Flooding EAL Score Coastal Flooding EAL Score Hurricane EAL Score Wildfire EAL Score
Connecticut Hartford 38% 8.6 23.4 7.8 17.3 11.4 4.5
Maryland Baltimore 42% 21.7 52.5 17.7 41.4 19.7 15.4
Virginia Virginia Beach 46% 26.5 46.3 27.9 37 26.8 20.6
Wisconsin Milwaukee 49% 24.0 54.3 24.4 0 9.9 11.5
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Aside from Disasters, Climate Change Is Causing Higher Energy and Insurance Costs

Although disasters can render certain areas unlivable, many climate-caused costs facing homeowners are more gradual in nature — such as increased energy costs.

Since 1980, the average U.S. temperature has increased from 51.6 to 53.7. Hotter summers mean homeowners are spending more on electricity to cool their houses.

Utility officials in Illinois, for example, estimate the warmer summers could cost
locals an additional $11 billion over the next 30 years.

Some areas will be affected more than others, according to energy expenditure estimates from NOAA.

Maui County in Hawaii, Maricopa County (Phoenix) in Arizona, and many counties along the southwest border of the U.S. are likely to see the biggest
increases in energy use due to rising temperatures.

By 2040, extreme heat in Arizona could add up to $110 to residents’ electric bills each year, according to the Environmental Defense Fund.

Additionally, homeowners insurance premiums are likely to rise due to climate change, as insurers pay out more money in disaster-related claims, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The agency warns that some insurers “may stop writing
policies altogether.” In fact, some insurers have already stopped covering parts of California deemed too risky because
of wildfires.

Driven by climate-related risks, homeowners insurance premiums worldwide are estimated to increase 5.3% each year through 2040, international reinsurer Swiss Re forecasts.

No matter which types of real estate costs they impact, the financial complications that come with climate change remain an additional hurdle for present and future home buyers.

Methodology

Data for billion-dollar climate disasters in the United States is retrieved from the National Centers for Environmental Information — a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — and dollar values are inflation-adjusted.

Median sales prices of homes sold in the United States (MSPUS) are retrieved from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For changes in median home sale price at the metro level, we use the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI).

State-level wildfire counts and acres affected are retrieved from the National Interagency Fire Center. Disaster declaration counts are retrieved from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and do not include COVID-19-related declarations.

State-level Expected Annual Loss Scores (EAL) are retrieved from FEMA and represent the average economic loss in dollars resulting from natural hazards each year. It is calculated for each hazard type and quantifies loss for relevant consequence types:
buildings, people, and agriculture. FEMA factors in exposure, historic loss, and frequency when scoring for expected annual loss.

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Frequently Asked Questions About Climate Change and Real Estate

What’s the best place to buy property due to climate change?

The states with the lowest expected losses due to disasters are mostly in the Northeast, including Rhode Island, Vermont, and Delaware. Learn more.

What’s the worst place to buy property due to climate change?

The states with the highest expected losses due to disasters are California and multiple Gulf Coast states, such as Texas, Florida, and Louisiana. Learn
more.

What is the impact of climate change on real estate?

Climate change is driving more frequent and more expensive natural disasters. Along with potential for catastrophic disaster damage, climate change is linked to higher insurance premiums and energy costs for homeowners. Learn more.

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