Home Values vs. Homelessness in the U.S.: A Concerning Connection (2023 Data)

High Home Values and Homelessness | The Worst City for Housing | Golden State Struggles | 12 Worst Metros for Homelessness | Rent Prices | Poverty Rates | Lowest Homeless Rates | Outlier Cities

America’s affordable housing crisis manifests in different ways, but none are as visual, visceral, or tragic as the prevalence of homelessness. About 582,000 Americans were homeless in 2022 — equivalent to the population of Wyoming.

With a state’s worth of people living without reliable housing, it’s clear that the U.S. has a problem. Portugal, a country whose gross domestic product equals just 1% of U.S. GDP, has a homeless rate half that of America.

Although experiences vary, it’s only logical to wonder about the overarching causes of homelessness. New research from Home Bay highlights a clear correlation between a lack of affordable housing and high rates of homelessness in America’s cities.

Analysis of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas reveals that cities with home values above the national average have homeless rates 2.5x higher than metro areas with lower-than-average home values. 

In certain cities, the comparison is especially jarring. San Jose, California, has the country’s highest rate of homelessness and highest home values — with a homeless rate of 637 per 100,000 residents and a typical home value of $1.39 million.

To learn more about the relationship between high housing prices and homelessness, Home Bay analyzed data from Zillow and the Department of Housing and Urban Development to see how America’s cities compare.

Cities With High Home Values Have More Homelessness

Analysis shows a strong correlation between expensive homes and high rates of homelessness in the country’s 50 largest metro areas. 

Metro areas with home values higher than the typical U.S. home ($301,466) have homeless rates 2.5x higher than areas with lower-than-average home values. 

The 28 metros with higher-than-average home values have an average homeless rate of 216 per 100,000 people. Meanwhile, the 22 metros with lower-than-average home values have an average homeless rate of 82 per 100,000 people. 

The explanation is fairly straightforward. High prices are an indicator of high demand, and high demand comes from scarcity, such as a low supply of affordable housing. 

Although most Americans believe the main causes of homelessness are substance use or mental health challenges, some researchers put more emphasis on the overall cost of housing. Home Bay’s findings are consistent with that thesis.

The chart below shows how areas with high housing prices tend to have higher rates of homelessness.

Plotting cities’ homeless rates and home values reveals some interesting outliers. 

For example, Boston ranks sixth nationally for highest home values but 28th for homelessness — indicating Boston may be doing something right regarding policies to help with homelessness.

However, its New England neighbor, Hartford, Connecticut, ranks 11th for homelessness but 32nd for home values — suggesting that even reasonable housing costs aren’t alleviating homelessness.

City	Home Value Rank	Typical Home Value	Homeless Rate Rank	Homeless Rate per 100,000 People
United States	–	$301,466	–	175.5
San Jose, CA	1	$1,388,268	1	636.8
San Francisco, CA	2	$1,112,005	2	508.8
Los Angeles, CA	3	$839,426	3	501
San Diego, CA	4	$794,389	6	378.3
Seattle, WA	5	$670,672	5	408.9
Boston, MA	6	$577,160	28	90.6
Denver, CO	7	$559,309	10	231.6
Sacramento, CA	8	$549,079	4	468
New York, NY	9	$533,524	7	371.9
Portland, OR	10	$517,139	8	310.7
Riverside, CA	11	$514,369	15	142.9
Salt Lake City, UT	12	$508,195	13	165.9
Washington, DC	13	$506,268	18	123.1
Austin, TX	14	$467,403	17	134.2
Phoenix, AZ	15	$419,470	12	182.5
Raleigh, NC	16	$384,348	23	105.9
Miami, FL	17	$383,767	39	76.8
Providence, RI	18	$383,720	26	94.1
Las Vegas, NV	19	$383,673	9	246.2
Nashville, TN	20	$379,259	21	113.6
Minneapolis, MN	21	$338,959	16	139.2
Dallas, TX	22	$336,437	38	78.3
Orlando, FL	23	$336,326	35	79.9
Baltimore, MD	24	$328,445	27	92.1
Atlanta, GA	25	$325,680	46	52.7
Charlotte, NC	26	$323,297	43	65.2
Tampa, FL	27	$320,187	14	150.1
Jacksonville, FL	28	$308,334	24	99.4
Richmond, VA	29	$301,135	47	52.6
Philadelphia, PA	30	$293,721	19	119.1
Virginia Beach, VA	31	$293,623	29	90.3
Hartford, CT	32	$277,401	11	192
Houston, TX	33	$274,314	49	43.3
Chicago, IL	34	$267,173	41	74.3
Milwaukee, WI	35	$266,314	45	53.1
San Antonio, TX	36	$265,249	20	115.1
Columbus, OH	37	$257,529	30	88.9
Kansas City, MO	38	$251,635	34	81.1
Indianapolis, IN	39	$239,447	33	82.8
Cincinnati, OH	40	$232,775	48	47.8
New Orleans, LA	41	$227,523	25	96.2
Louisville, KY	42	$221,129	32	84.1
Buffalo, NY	42	$212,730	42	73.6
Birmingham, AL	44	$211,578	31	84.6
Detroit, MI	45	$209,249	44	60.9
St. Louis, MO	46	$205,694	36	79.6
Memphis, TN	47	$203,110	37	79
Oklahoma City, OK	48	$195,828	22	106.5
Cleveland, OH	49	$183,199	40	75.8
Pittsburgh, PA	50	$179,357	50	41.8

San Jose Has the Country’s Highest Home Values and Highest Rates of Homelessness

No metro struggles as much with housing prices and homelessness as the home of Silicon Valley. 

San Jose’s homeless rate — 637 per 100,000 people — is 3.5x the national average. In addition, the city’s home values are 4.5x the national average, with a typical home value of $1.39 million.

Although California’s metros already have higher homeless rates than the typical U.S. city, tech salaries and housing prices in San Jose have made the city especially unaffordable for those without high incomes. 

In fact, another recent Home Bay study found that San Jose is the worst city for home buyers because it takes 450 months of average rent — 37.5 years — to buy the average home.

California Cities Struggle Disproportionately With Home Values and Homelessness 

The connection between home values and homelessness is readily apparent in California metros. 

Six of the country’s 50 largest metros are in California. With an average homeless rate of 499 per 100,000 people, the rate in these cities is 2.8x higher than the U.S. average — 176 per 100,000 people. 

These metros also have home values nearly 3x the U.S. average — $866,256 vs. $301,466.

The four cities with the highest homeless rates nationwide are San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Sacramento. San Diego ranks sixth nationally, and Riverside ranks 15th.

California has one of the highest costs of living in the country, further exacerbating existing economic inequalities. In addition to a desirable climate, California is considered one of the better states for access to services for homeless populations, which can incentivize people without reliable housing to stay.

Cities With the Highest Homeless Rates Have Home Values More Than Double the National Average

The relationship between high home values and high homeless rates is not one-sided. When we look at cities with the highest homeless rates, they too tend to have the highest home values.  

In fact, metro areas with above-average homeless rates have typical home values about 2.2x higher than the national average. 

Of the 50 metros in our analysis, 12 have homeless rates above the national average of 176 per 100,000 people. These 12 metros have an average home value of $670,363, while the typical home across the country is worth $301,466.

City	Homeless Rate Rank	Homeless Rate per 100,000 People	Home Value Rank	Typical Home Value
United States	–	175.5	–	$301,466
San Jose, CA	1	636.8	1	$1,388,268
San Francisco, CA	2	508.8	2	$1,112,005
Los Angeles, CA	3	501	3	$839,426
Sacramento, CA	4	468	8	$549,079
Seattle, WA	5	408.9	5	$670,672
San Diego, CA	6	378.3	4	$794,389
New York, NY	7	371.9	9	$533,524
Portland, OR	8	310.7	10	$517,139
Las Vegas, NV	9	246.2	19	$383,673
Denver, CO	10	231.6	7	$559,309
Hartford, CT	11	192	32	$277,401
Phoenix, AZ	12	182.5	15	$419,470

Rent Prices Are $700 Higher in Metros With the Highest Homeless Rates

The 12 metros with the highest homeless rates have above-average home values, as well as above-average rent prices. 

The typical rent price in the 12 metros with above-average homeless rates is $2,274 a month. That’s nearly $700 more expensive than the typical rent price of $1,596 in cities with lower-than-average homeless rates.

Both high home values and high rent prices are associated with higher homelessness, but the correlation is stronger between home values and homelessness. 

That may be because landlords and real estate investors compensate for high property prices by charging higher rents, but high rents don’t necessarily cause higher home values. Factors influencing rent prices, such as local rental market regulations and varying goals among individual landlords, don’t impact home values to the same extent.

City	Homeless Rate Rank	Homeless Rate per 100,000 People	Rent Price Rank	Typical Rent Price
United States	–	175.5	–	$1,843
San Jose, CA	1	636.8	1	$2,993
San Francisco, CA	2	508.8	2	$2,968
Los Angeles, CA	3	501	4	$2,742
Sacramento, CA	4	468	9	$2,187
Seattle, WA	5	408.9	11	$2,079
San Diego, CA	6	378.3	6	$2,724
New York, NY	7	371.9	3	$2,827
Portland, OR	8	310.7	22	$1,742
Las Vegas, NV	9	246.2	17	$1,807
Denver, CO	10	231.6	14	$1,859
Hartford, CT	11	192	34	$1,513
Phoenix, AZ	12	182.5	15	$1,843
Salt Lake City, UT	13	165.9	28	$1,628
Tampa, FL	14	150.1	12	$1,957
Riverside, CA	15	142.9	8	$2,382
Minneapolis, MN	16	139.2	32	$1,546
Austin, TX	17	134.2	20	$1,745
Washington, DC	18	123.1	10	$2,092
Philadelphia, PA	19	119.1	23	$1,711
San Antonio, TX	20	115.1	36	$1,419
Nashville, TN	21	113.6	18	$1,756
Oklahoma City, OK	22	106.5	46	$1,238
Raleigh, NC	23	105.9	29	$1,619
Jacksonville, FL	24	99.4	26	$1,661
New Orleans, LA	25	96.2	31	$1,553
Providence, RI	26	94.1	19	$1,747
Baltimore, MD	27	92.1	24	$1,697
Boston, MA	28	90.6	5	$2,740
Virginia Beach, VA	29	90.3	33	$1,534
Columbus, OH	30	88.9	38	$1,366
Birmingham, AL	31	84.6	44	$1,244
Louisville, KY	32	84.1	48	$1,158
Indianapolis, IN	33	82.8	39	$1,328
Kansas City, MO	34	81.1	43	$1,247
Orlando, FL	35	79.9	13	$1,870
St. Louis, MO	36	79.6	47	$1,216
Memphis, TN	37	79	37	$1,389
Dallas, TX	38	78.3	25	$1,681
Miami, FL	39	76.8	7	$2,524
Cleveland, OH	40	75.8	45	$1,240
Chicago, IL	41	74.3	21	$1,742
Buffalo, NY	42	73.6	50	$1,113
Charlotte, NC	43	65.2	27	$1,639
Detroit, MI	44	60.9	41	$1,297
Milwaukee, WI	45	53.1	49	$1,136
Atlanta, GA	46	52.7	16	$1,832
Richmond, VA	47	52.6	35	$1,464
Cincinnati, OH	48	47.8	40	$1,305
Houston, TX	49	43.3	30	$1,573
Pittsburgh, PA	50	41.8	42	$1,254

Cities With Low Poverty Rates Have More Homelessness on Average 

Unlike with home values, our analysis found that low poverty rates are not a reliable indicator of low homelessness. Just the opposite — cities with low poverty rates surprisingly see more homelessness. 

Metros in which fewer than 10% of residents live in poverty have homeless rates and home values 2x higher than metros where 10% or more of residents live in poverty.

Nine of the 50 metros we analyzed have poverty rates under 10%. These cities have an average homeless rate of 265 per 100,000 people — compared to 134 per 100,000 people in cities with 10% or more of the population living in poverty.

The typical home value across these nine metros is about $656,941 — 95% higher than the other 41 cities with higher poverty rates, which have a typical home value of $337,716. 

For example, San Jose has the country’s lowest poverty rate and the highest rate of homelessness. New Orleans has a poverty rate 2.7x higher than San Jose but a homeless rate 6.6x lower than San Jose. 

That may indicate that, despite low incomes, residents in areas with high poverty rates can more easily afford housing because of a lower cost of living. It may also indicate a need to use caution when using a city’s poverty rate to gauge an area’s economic reality.

City	Highest Poverty Rate Rank	Share of Residents Below Poverty Level	Homeless Rate Rank	Homeless Rate per 100,000 People	Home Value Rank	Typical Home Value
United States	–	12.80%	–	175.5	–	$301,466
San Jose, CA	50	6.90%	1	636.8	1	$1,388,268
Minneapolis, MN	49	8.00%	16	139.2	21	$338,959
Salt Lake City, UT	48	8.20%	13	165.9	12	$508,195
Denver, CO	47	8.40%	10	231.6	7	$559,309
Seattle, WA	46	8.60%	5	408.9	5	$670,672
Washington, DC	45	8.70%	18	123.1	13	$506,268
San Francisco, CA	44	9.00%	2	508.8	2	$1,112,005
Boston, MA	43	9.30%	28	90.6	6	$577,160
Kansas City, MO	42	9.70%	34	81.1	38	$251,635
Portland, OR	41	10.00%	8	310.7	10	$517,139
Hartford, CT	40	10.10%	11	192	32	$277,401
Raleigh, NC	39	10.10%	23	105.9	16	$384,348
Austin, TX	38	10.30%	17	134.2	14	$467,403
Richmond, VA	37	10.50%	47	52.6	29	$301,135
San Diego, CA	36	10.60%	6	378.3	4	$794,389
Nashville, TN	35	10.60%	21	113.6	20	$379,259
Indianapolis, IN	34	10.60%	33	82.8	39	$239,447
St. Louis, MO	33	10.60%	36	79.6	46	$205,694
Baltimore, MD	32	10.70%	27	92.1	24	$328,445
Virginia Beach, VA	31	10.70%	29	90.3	31	$293,623
Charlotte, NC	30	10.70%	43	65.2	26	$323,297
Dallas, TX	29	11.00%	38	78.3	22	$336,437
Phoenix, AZ	28	11.10%	12	182.5	15	$419,470
Pittsburgh, PA	27	11.20%	50	41.8	50	$179,357
Chicago, IL	26	11.50%	41	74.3	34	$267,173
Providence, RI	25	11.60%	26	94.1	18	$383,720
Atlanta, GA	24	11.60%	46	52.7	25	$325,680
Sacramento, CA	23	11.80%	4	468	8	$549,079
Louisville, KY	22	12.10%	32	84.1	42	$221,129
Cincinnati, OH	21	12.10%	48	47.8	40	$232,775
Jacksonville, FL	20	12.20%	24	99.4	28	$308,334
Columbus, OH	19	12.20%	30	88.9	37	$257,529
Riverside, CA	18	12.30%	15	142.9	11	$514,369
Philadelphia, PA	17	12.30%	19	119.1	30	$293,721
Milwaukee, WI	16	12.40%	45	53.1	35	$266,314
New York, NY	15	12.90%	7	371.9	9	$533,524
Orlando, FL	14	12.90%	35	79.9	23	$336,326
Tampa, FL	13	13.00%	14	150.1	27	$320,187
Cleveland, OH	12	13.00%	40	75.8	49	$183,199
Los Angeles, CA	11	13.10%	3	501	3	$839,426
Miami, FL	10	13.30%	39	76.8	17	$383,767
San Antonio, TX	9	13.40%	20	115.1	36	$265,249
Detroit, MI	8	13.40%	44	60.9	45	$209,249
Buffalo, NY	7	13.50%	42	73.6	43	$212,730
Houston, TX	6	14.10%	49	43.3	33	$274,314
Birmingham, AL	5	14.30%	31	84.6	44	$211,578
Oklahoma City, OK	4	14.50%	22	106.5	48	$195,828
Las Vegas, NV	3	15.10%	9	246.2	19	$383,673
Memphis, TN	2	16.90%	37	79	47	$203,110
New Orleans, LA	1	18.40%	25	96.2	41	$227,523

A Look at Cities With the Lowest Homeless Rates

Despite the commonality of homelessness across the country, some cities have achieved low rates of homelessness, in part, because of the relative affordability of housing. 

The 15 cities with the lowest rates of homelessness are all in the eastern half of the U.S., with seven in the Midwest. Of course, climate plays a role, but housing prices do as well. These 15 metros average a typical home price of $260,282 — 14% lower than the U.S. average of $301,466.

In light of the evidence, it’s clear that unaffordable housing prices are a key cause of homelessness across the U.S.

City	Homeless Rate Rank	Homeless Rate per 100,000 People	Home Value Rank	Typical Home Value
United States	–	175.5	–	$301,466
Pittsburgh, PA	50	41.8	50	$179,357
Houston, TX	49	43.3	33	$274,314
Cincinnati, OH	48	47.8	40	$232,775
Richmond, VA	47	52.6	29	$301,135
Atlanta, GA	46	52.7	25	$325,680
Milwaukee, WI	45	53.1	35	$266,314
Detroit, MI	44	60.9	45	$209,249
Charlotte, NC	43	65.2	26	$323,297
Buffalo, NY	42	73.6	43	$212,730
Chicago, IL	41	74.3	34	$267,173
Cleveland, OH	40	75.8	49	$183,199
Miami, FL	39	76.8	17	$383,767
Dallas, TX	38	78.3	22	$336,437
Memphis, TN	37	79	47	$203,110
St. Louis, MO	36	79.6	46	$205,694

Exceptional Cases: Which Cities Buck the Trend?

For the vast majority of major metros, higher home values are associated with higher rates of homelessness. But certain cities defy the norm.

The tables below show 10 metros: five that manage to have low homeless rates despite above-average home values and five that struggle with high homeless rates despite relatively low home values.

Metros With Homeless Rates Lower Than Expected

City	Home Value Rank	Typical Home Value	Homeless Rate Rank	Homeless Rate per 100,000 People	Difference in Ranking
United States	–	$301,466	–	175.5	–
Boston, MA	6	$577,160	28	90.6	22
Miami, FL	17	$383,767	39	76.8	22
Atlanta, GA	25	$325,680	46	52.7	21
Richmond, VA	29	$301,135	47	52.6	18
Charlotte, NC	26	$323,297	43	65.2	17

Metros With Homeless Rates Higher Than Expected

City	Home Value Rank	Typical Home Value	Homeless Rate Rank	Homeless Rate per 100,000 People	Difference in Ranking
United States	–	$301,466	–	175.5	–
Oklahoma City, OK	48	$195,828	22	106.5	26
Hartford, CT	32	$277,401	11	192	21
San Antonio, TX	36	$265,249	20	115.1	16
New Orleans, LA	41	$227,523	25	96.2	16
Tampa, FL	27	$320,187	14	150.1	13

It’s not immediately clear how these outliers managed to defy the trend. But a closer look could reveal what approaches are the most productive — and counterproductive — for addressing homelessness in the U.S.

Methodology

Homelessness point-in-time data is sourced from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. All homeless rates are estimates based on metropolitan area delineations and their corresponding continuums of care as listed by HUD.

Typical home values and typical rent prices are collected from Zillow. The percentage of the population that lives 10% below the poverty line is sourced from the U.S. Census.

For point-in-time counts at the metro level, we’ve aggregated county-level data where available. For two metro areas, Providence, RI and Hartford, CT, only state-level counts were available.

*Correction: A previous version of this report incorrectly cited metro Atlanta’s estimated rate of homelessness, due to the exclusion of surrounding counties. The report has been updated with the correct information.

About Home Bay 

Where your real estate voyage begins. Since 2014, Home Bay has helped thousands of readers confidently sail through their next home sale or purchase. In 2021, Home Bay was acquired by Clever Real Estate, a free agent-matching service that has helped consumers save more than $160 million on real estate fees. Research by Home Bay’s Data Center has been cited by The New York Times, CNBC, MarketWatch, NPR, Apartment Therapy, Yahoo Finance, Black Enterprise, and more.

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